South Africa vs Pakistan: Must‑win clash at 2025 Women's ODI World Cup

When 2025 Women's ODI World Cup R. Premadasa Stadium hosts its 22nd group‑stage match, all eyes will be on the showdown between South Africa Women's National Cricket Team and Pakistan Women's National Cricket Team. The fixture kicks off on Tuesday, 21 October 2025 at 3:00 PM IST, and it’s a make‑or‑break moment for Pakistan, who sit on the brink of elimination, while South Africa have already locked in a semifinal berth.

Historical context and head‑to‑head record

South Africa have surged ahead in the women's ODI rankings over the past five years, thanks to a blend of aggressive top‑order batting and disciplined seam bowling. Their last eight encounters with Pakistan have produced four wins each, a parity that fuels this contest. According to data from CricketArchive, South Africa’s most recent victory came in the 2022 series in the United Arab Emirates, where they chased down 215 with six wickets to spare. Pakistan, however, have pulled off a memorable upset in the 2018 World T20, edging South Africa by three runs in a rain‑shortened thriller.

Current tournament trajectories

South Africa entered the tournament with a loss to England, but rebounded with four straight wins against Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Ireland, and the United Arab Emirates. Captain Laura Wolvaardt, captain of the South African side has been the anchor, averaging 54.3 runs and striking at a healthy 78.4 % against the outfield. Their net run rate sits at +1.12, comfortably securing a top‑two finish.

Pakistan’s campaign has been far less forgiving. After a loss to New Zealand, they were handed defeats by England and Australia, with two no‑result games against Sri Lanka and Ireland due to rain. With three points from five matches and a net run rate of –0.84, they need a win and must rely on other results to keep their semifinal hopes alive.

Probable playing XIs and key match‑ups

South Africa are expected to field a line‑up that blends experience and youth:

• Laura Wolvaardt (c) – left‑handed opener
• Tazmin Brits – aggressive middle‑order batswoman
• Anneke Bosch – all‑rounder, medium‑pace
• Annerie Dercksen – top‑order bat
• Marizanne Kapp – seam bowler and lower‑order hitter
• Karabo Meso (wk) – wicket‑keeper
• Chloe Tryon – left‑arm spin
• Sune Luus – off‑spinner
• Additional bowlers – likely includes Delmi Tucker and Nadine de Klerk

Pakistan will lean on their swing attack and a few hard‑hitting all‑rounders. The likely XI includes:

• Fatima Sana – right‑arm fast bowler and lower‑order bat
• Diana Baig – left‑arm pace bowler
• Nashra Sandhu – left‑arm orthodox spinner
• Aliya Riaz – top‑order bat
• Javeria Khan – experienced middle‑order
• Opening pair likely includes Nida Dar and Sadaf Shamas
• Additional seamers – Khadija Tul Kubra and Ayesha Naseem

The clash of styles will be evident from the first ball: Wolvaardt’s textbook drives versus Sana’s wicket‑taking yorkers. The pivotal battle is expected to be South Africa’s spin duo against Pakistan’s tall pace attack, a subplot that could decide the outcome.

What’s at stake?

For South Africa, the match is about cementing a top‑two finish, which translates into a theoretically easier semifinal opponent. A win will also preserve momentum heading into the knockout stage, where they could meet either Australia or New Zealand.

Pakistan, on the other hand, face an existential dilemma. A loss would mathematically eliminate them, as the fourth‑place slot would already be in the hands of New Zealand, England, and either Sri Lanka or Ireland, depending on rain‑affected outcomes. A victory would lift them to four points, forcing a three‑way tie that could be settled on net run rate – a scenario that would keep the dream alive for at least another day.

Broadcast, fan engagement and commercial angle

All World Cup matches are being televised on the Star Sports Network in India, with live streaming on the JioHotstar platform. The broadcast team has promised a dedicated pre‑match analysis segment at 0:28:44 into the telecast, focusing on player form and tactical nuances. Social‑media chatter on Twitter has already trended with the hashtag #SAvsPA, and both cricket boards have mobilised fan‑vote polls to predict the match winner.

Expert insights

Cricket analyst Ajay Ramesh told CricketTalk that South Africa’s “bat‑first” strategy, anchored by Wolvaardt’s ability to rotate strike, could force Pakistan into a chase under pressure. He added, “If Pakistan can bowl a tight spell in the first ten overs, they’ll keep the target manageable, but they can’t afford a middle‑overs collapse.”

Pakistani former captain Sana Mir emphasized the importance of Sana’s all‑round contribution, noting, “Fatima can turn the game with a couple of quick wickets or a quick‑fire 30‑run cameo. It’s a win‑or‑go‑home situation.”

Looking ahead: possible scenarios after the match

If South Africa wins, they will finish the group stage with 20 points and likely face the fourth‑place team in the semis, potentially New Zealand. A loss for South Africa would still see them qualify, but with a lower seed that could pit them against a stronger opponent.

Should Pakistan pull off an upset, they will need to watch the result of Ireland’s final group match against England. A narrow loss for Ireland could see Pakistan sneak into the top four on net run rate, turning the final day of the tournament into a dramatic finish.